There might be some amazing scenario where India completely collapses in the last round against Slovenia while China shuts out the U.S. (heaven forbid), such that China catches India and wins on tiebreaks, but it’s extremely unlikely. No, it appears that India’s 2.5-1.5 win over the U.S. in round 10 of the Olympiad, the penultimate round, essentially guaranteed the amazing Indian team of the gold medals.
The match trended in their favor from early on. Arjun Erigaisi had a queenside bind against Leinier Dominguez from early on, while the other three games were approximately equal. That continued for a while and the match seemed headed for a 2.5-1.5 India win, but then things started to change. Wesley So started to outplay Praggnanandhaa, while a couple of wobbles from Erigaisi left that game somewhat in doubt. Now a 2-2 tie or, with some luck, a 2.5-1.5 win for the Americans was within the realm of possibility. So did indeed end up winning his game, but the U.S. suffered a double whammy. Erigaisi managed to re-establish control, which wasn’t so surprising, but what was surprising was Fabiano Caruana’s big mistake on move 34 against Gukesh, turning what was very close to a draw into a loss. Levon Aronian couldn’t get anything against Vidit on board four, so in the end India won the match by a point, guaranteeing themselves at least a two point lead (i.e. a one-point lead on traditional scoring) over the winner, if any, of the China-Uzbekistan match.
That match was won by China, 2.5-1.5, and it could have been worse if Ding had managed to convert any of his several winning advantages against Abdusattorov. That was by far Abdusattorov’s worst game of the event, and it also keeps underscoring that Ding is still but a shadow of his best self. Anyway, China did win on boards 2 and 3, winning the match despite a loss on board 4.
(A selection of games from round 10, with my comments, is here.)
Going into the last round, then, India only needs to draw with Slovenia to guarantee itself clear first. Assuming India wins, China will guarantee itself the silver if it wins its match against the U.S. If India wins and the U.S. wins, I’m not sure if we (the U.S.) pass China on tiebreaks, but we would seem to be the favorites for the bronze even if we don’t pass them. Anyway, you can see the full standings and tiebreak scores here; here are the key last round pairings:
Slovenia (16) - India (19)
Spain (15) - Hungary (15)
China (17) - U.S. (15)
Uzbekistan (15) - France (15)
Serbia (15) - Ukraine (15)
Armenia (15) - Iran (14)