Olympics, Round 6: India in Clear First
The U.S. draws again as the players enter the rest day.
One need not be Nostradamus (Monostradamus?) to have foreseen India taking the lead in the Olympiad as the event crosses the halfway point. India features three players who were just in the Candidates (Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, and Vidit), and a fourth player (Erigaisi) who may be the strongest of the lot. Only the U.S. and China have any shot against them if they’re playing anywhere near their normal level, and with China missing the Ding Liren who won the World Championship their chances for first are minimal. If Nakamura had played for the U.S., they might have been slight favorites to win; now, no. (I think China and the U.S. have decent chances to medal, along with Uzbekistan. But, barring a catastrophe, India should win the gold.)
Entering the round there were four teams with perfect scores: India, Hungary (the host team), China, and Vietnam. India played Hungary, and to the Magyars’ credit they held the mighty Gukesh on board 1, and drew on board 2 as well. Sjugirov did not manage to survive against Erigaisi (who, bizarrely, is allowed to play on board 3, despite being the world’s #4 and the highest-rated Indian player) while Gledura lost to Vidit. So, a comfortable 3-1 victory for the Indian team. For Gukesh, it was the first game he didn’t win in the event, while Erigaisi is up to a 6-0 score.
China should have won their match against Vietnam. They won easily on board 4, while on board 2 the Vietnamese player threw away the white pieces against Wei Yi, making a draw in just 15 moves. Wei Yi didn’t play anything obscure or surprising, but a normal opening he has played many times before. Despite this crime against chess, and scoring just half a point in their two white games, Vietnam drew the match anyway. Tran drew with Yu Yangyi on board 3, while Ding lost a drawn rook ending to Le Quang Liem on board 1. (It’s not impossible that Ding Liren will be a 2600-rated player by year’s end if this keeps up; he’s down to 2726.7 at the moment.)
So India is in clear first, a point ahead of China, Vietnam, and…Iran, who defeated Norway 2.5-1.5. Iran won on board 4 while drawing the other games - that included Parham Maghsoodloo surviving a marathon against Magnus Carlsen. (In actuality, the long endgame wasn’t too tough for Maghsoodloo; the real escape came earlier, when Carlsen had serious winning chances.)
10 teams have 10 points: Uzbekistan, France, Ukraine, Armenia, Hungary, England, Georgia, Serbia, Lithuania, and Netherlands. Surprisingly, only six teams have nine points, a group that includes the U.S., Norway, and the descendants of my ancestors in Greece. The U.S. is part of this lower score group thanks to their 2-2 draw with Romania. In their white games the Romanians did nothing, playing maximally drawish lines and counting on their comrades to hold with Black - which they did. Fabiano Caruana had great winning chances against Bogdan-Daniel Deac early on, but when he played the immediate 23.Nf5 (rather than 23.d5, first closing the center, and only after 23…Rg6 then 24.Nf5) his advantage was mostly gone. He gamely tried for a very long time - to move 125 - but there was no win to be had. Levon Aronian, by contrast, may have given up on his game with Liviu-Dieter Nisipeanu too soon. That said, his best chances had come earlier in the game, and by the end his chances would have been practical more than objective.
(Here’s today’s game selection.)
Tonight the players are all letting loose in the famous Bermuda party and will spend tomorrow puking their guts out, feeling regret, or doing whatever else to recover and get ready for the home stretch. Here are the leading pairings for round 7, on Wednesday:
India (12) vs. China (11) [The big one, and a chance for a Ding vs. Gukesh World Championship match preview.]
Lithuania (10) vs. Hungary (10) [Remember that Hungary’s A-team is permanently on board 2 - oddly, even when they’re really on board 1.]
Iran (11) vs. Vietnam (11) [Think of how strong Iran would have been if Firouzja were still there (and playing).]
Uzbekistan (10) vs. Ukraine (10)
Serbia (10) vs. Netherlands (10)
Armenia (10) vs. England (10)
France (10) vs. Georgia (10)
Greece (9) vs. USA (9) [Am I conflicted? No, I’m an American: 4-0, please. I will root for Greece again in subsequent rounds.]
Austria (9) vs. Norway (9)
Romania (9) vs. Poland (9)
Any word on why Firouzja isnt playing for France?
Thanks for keeping us updated.
With all due respect: While this is purely hypothetical, I don't think US would have been slight favourites with Nakamura. Indians are so much younger and more competitive. Fabi is great so far, but: Wesley So is just not used to play that seriously anymore (where a draw might not be enough and you have to keep the game open). All the others (despite Aronians fine score, but take his first round game) aren't convincing so far either.
I also don't think, Erigaisi playing board 3 is bizarre. While Gukesh and Prag come from candidates, getting used to play high level competition every round, Erigaisi has raised his ELO playing Opens and weaker round robins (which should not distract from his great results). You need one player to win constantly on the lower boards and they obviously thought Erigaisi would be best suited for this task, given his latest experience.