Candidates, Round 12 (Updated)

Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura, and Gukesh share the lead; Caruana trails by half a point.

This has been a remarkable Candidates tournament, and while there have been others that came down to the last round or two I can’t think of any previous Candidates where four players were still in the running with just two rounds to go. Ian Nepomniachtchi has steadily made his way through the event, often under pressure but undefeated with three wins, and he has been in first, either alone or shared, from the very first round. But he has not managed to shake the field.

In particular, Dommaraju Gukesh has either shared first or been within half a point from the start, and coming into round 12 he was half a point behind Nepo. Hikaru Nakamura was also half a point out of first coming into the round, but for him the road had been rockier. He lost to Santosh Vidit Gujrathi in round 2 and remained at -1 until a win in round 5 brought him back to 50% where he remained until the halfway point. A win over Fabiano Caruana in round 8 put him at +1, but then a second loss in round 9 to Vidit returned him to 50%. No matter, he won in rounds 10 & 11 to return to contention.

As for Caruana, he was a full point out of first entering the round, but the top seed had showed some signs of life with his win over Alireza Firouzja in round 10. Still, the rounds were running out. Could he catch Nepomniachtchi? Could anyone?

Yes - at least for Gukesh and Nakamura, and Caruana closed the gap as well. Of course, none of these players had their fate in their hands in this round, as Nepo had White against Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. With a win, Nepo would guarantee that he would enter the penultimate round with at least a half point lead, but - strangely - he played what at least seemed an insipid line of the Exchange French against Pragg. He got nothing - in fact, he was even a little worse - and wisely chose to give up on the middlegame and play for a draw, which he managed without too much difficulty.

That let everyone catch up, and they did. Remarkably, Nakamura also played the Exchange Variation against the French, but the version he employed against Firouzja was much more interesting. Firouzja was only happy to throw fuel on the fire, and by move 17 a wonderfully complicated position was on the board. Nakamura outplayed Firouzja through the tactics, and was well on his way to victory, especially given the latter’s usual time trouble. But Nakamura blinked on his way to victory, erring on move 30 but getting away with it, and then again on move 34. Firouzja had very little time left, but did everything right and achieved an objectively drawn ending by the time he made the time control on move 40. Fortunately for Nakamura, Firouzja’s 41st move was a blunder, and this time there was no further amnesty. Nakamura’s technique was up to the challenge, and he won the game, catching up to Nepo.

Gukesh too won, handing Nijat Abasov his first loss in the event with the White pieces. Gukesh prepared an odd but interesting idea in the Nimzo-Indian, meeting 4.Qc2 with 4…h6, which prepared the even more bizarre 11…Nh7. It all cohered, and the result was a typical battle between White’s initiative and Black’s long-term hopes of exploiting White’s poor queenside pawn structure. In the end, Gukesh’s persistence and technique prevailed, and he saddled the winless Abasov with his sixth defeat of the tournament, while moving to +3 and a share of the lead.

Finally, Caruana squeezed the full point against Vidit. It didn’t seem as if he had anything at first, but he succeeded in repeatedly restricting Vidit’s position, winning a pawn and concluding with a decisive attack. It wasn’t a perfect game, but it was convincing and impressive, and he remains in contention with two rounds to go.

Here are today’s games (with annotations to the first two; I intend to annotate the rest before the next round starts). [UPDATE: The new link has annotations to all four games.] Friday is a rest day, and then here are the pairings for rounds 13 (on Saturday) and 14 (on Sunday):

Round 13:

• Nepomniachtchi (7.5) - Nakamura (7.5)

• Praggnanandhaa (6) - Caruana (7)

• Vidit (5) - Abasov (3)

• Gukesh (7.5) - Firouzja (4.5)

Round 14:

• Nakamura - Gukesh

• Firouzja - Vidit

• Abasov - Praggnanandhaa

• Caruana - Nepomniachtchi

Nakamura has the toughest pairings, but in a way the best pairings, too, because his fate is entirely in his own hands. He and he alone can guarantee himself of clear first, without a playoff, by winning both games. Going in the opposite direction, looking for maximal tiebreaks, there doesn’t seem to be a way for a five-way tie for first, but a four-way tie can happen. For example: in round 13 Nepo and Nakamura draw, Gukesh draws, and Caruana wins; and then in the last round Nakamura-Gukesh and Caruana-Nepo finish as draws. Here’s hoping.