Candidates, Round 13

Gukesh leads three others by half a point with a round to go.

For the first time in the tournament, Ian Nepomniachtchi is not the leader, whether solo or shared. Will his run of Candidates tournament victories stop at two? We’ll see, but for now he’s on the outside looking in as 17-year-old Dommaraju Gukesh leads Nepo, Hikaru Nakamura, and Fabiano Caruana by half a point entering the last round.

Entering the penultimate round, Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura and Gukesh were tied for first, with Caruana half a point behind. Nepo and Nakamura were paired, while Gukesh had White against Alireza Firouzja and Caruana had Black against Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. (The fourth game, between Santosh Vidit Gujrathi and Nijat Abasov was not significant for the race for first, and finished in a quick draw.)

Nakamura surprised Nepo with the 4…Bc5 5.0-0 Nge7 sideline against the Ruy. This caused his opponent to fall behind on the clock, but when Nakamura mixed up his variations and played 14…d5 rather than 14…d6 (or 13…d6) he found himself in a difficult position, and it was his turn to start thinking deeply. Fortunately for Nakamura, Nepo played 17.Bc2?! rather than 17.d5, and after a further inaccuracy or two the chances were level. Nepo steered the game towards a draw with 23.Nf3, inviting a repetition that Nakamura was willing to accept. (It wasn’t necessary for him to do so, but there wasn’t anything better.)

Now the players waited to see what would happen in the Gukesh-Firouzja game. For a long time Firouzja was doing well, and even had a minimal edge early on. The game was equal much of the way, but near the end of the time control and especially early in the second time control, Firouzja lost his way. 43…Qg6+ would have kept equality, and after Gukesh’s imprecise 45.Qg5 there was one last chance to hold with 45…Ne6. Missing that, Gukesh’s cold-blooded technique brought home the point despite Firouzja’s tricky defensive play, and suddenly the youngster found himself the sole leader of the Candidates.

(An aside: I’ve heard and read people say that Gukesh is the youngest Candidate ever. C’mon, people: that honor goes to Bobby Fischer - remember him? He qualified for the 1959 Candidates when he was 15 and played when he was 16. That said, he didn’t perform as well as Gukesh is in this event. Gukesh also won’t be the youngest World Champion of all time he wins this event and then defeats Ding Liren in November/December, as Ruslan Ponomariov will have been around a couple of months younger when he won the FIDE World Championship in 2002 during the split era. You might not consider what he won the “real” World Championship, which was what Vladimir Kramnik had after defeating Garry Kasparov in 2000…but then one might make a similar though not perfectly analogous complaint that Gukesh is winning the title without having to go through Magnus Carlsen. That’s not Gukesh’s fault, but then against it wasn’t Ponomariov’s fault that he didn’t have to go through Kramnik or Kasparov.)

Back to the Candidates. The last game to finish was Caruana’s marathon win over Praggnanandhaa, an 89-move triumph of technique and tenacity. Pretty much from Pragg’s 15.Qh3? on, Caruana was better, but his opponent’s characteristically tough defense kept Black from having a winning advantage until White played 68.Ba1? From there Caruana was winning, and with good technique he finally reeled in the point.

(The games, with my notes, are here.)

There is thus one round to go - not counting the playoff on Monday, if it comes to that. Happily, the four leaders play each other in the final round, but because Gukesh leads them there can only be a two-game playoff at most; the dream of a four-man playoff is out. Here are the pairings:

• Nakamura (8) - Gukesh (8.5)

• Firouzja (4.5) - Vidit (5.5)

• Abasov (3.5) - Praggnanandhaa (6)

• Caruana (8) - Nepomniachtchi (8)

The possibilities are clear:

(1) If Gukesh wins his game, he wins the tournament.

(2) If Gukesh doesn’t win, then whichever player finishes with 9 points wins the tournament if Caruana-Nepo is drawn; otherwise, he’ll have a playoff with the winner of that game.

Note that neither Caruana nor Nepo can win the tournament outright, but if either player wins they’ll make a playoff unless Gukesh wins.

The playoff, should it come to that, will be on Monday, beginning at the usual start time. They’ll first play a two-game match at 15’+10”, and if that doesn’t settle it they’ll play a pair of 3’+2” games. If they’re still tied, then they’ll play sudden death games at 3’+2”, with colors switching in case of a draw. (The players will draw lots for colors at each of the three stages.)

All four leaders have been very impressive in the tournament. Gukesh has been ferocious, pushing for the maximum in practically every game. Nakamura made a terrific comeback after a very poor first half of the tournament, and Caruana too has come on strong in the last rounds. Nepomniachtchi too has done admirably, saving numerous difficult positions and generally making the most of his chances. All four will have much to be proud of, but will also be able to look back at certain games and lament “what if?”. Let’s hope for an exciting last round, and one where none of the four makes the sort of error that will lead to a lifetime of regret.