Candidates, Round 7 (Updated)

Nepo in clear first at the halfway point as Gukesh loses a heartbreaker.

The first cycle of the 2024 Candidates finished with a round that was thrilling for the fans and gut-wrenching for the players. In the end, going into a rest day, Ian Nepomniachtchi is back in sole first with 4.5/7, half a point ahead of Fabiano Caruana, Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, and Dommaraju Gukesh. But things could have been different - in many ways. In fact, it was possible - and nearly happened - that the tournament could have seen a six-way tie for first at the halfway point.

Let’s begin with the tragedy that was Gukesh’s loss to Alireza Firouzja. While Firouzja was tied for last place entering the round with a -3 score, he has already been over 2800 and is capable of beating anyone in the tournament as a matter of course. In this game, Gukesh learned the hard way just how capable Firouzja is, and in heartbreaking fashion.

Firouzja played the white side of a London with an Exchange Caro-Kann vibe, and while he didn’t obtain an advantage he reached a very sharp position that posed larger dangers for Black than for White. For much of the game Gukesh played more accurately and more quickly, but he may have overlooked or at least underestimated Firouzja’s 26.b4. He reacted well and may have thought he was winning with 27…Nxf2, but with very little time on the clock Firouzja stayed alive with the forced 31.Qb3. I think Gukesh’s 33…a5 was a practical error, and with both players down to a minute or two at most Firouzja’s incredible 36.Nd7 more or less blew Black’s mind. Gukesh tried to finesse things with 36…Kh7, but this was a fatal error punished the brilliant 37.Rf3. Gukesh lost on time on move 40, but it didn’t matter as he was getting mated on the next move.

That put Gukesh on 4/7, tied with Caruana and Praggnanandhaa after they drew each other without too much drama. (There was enough drama in the other three games, so having one comparatively calm game in the round isn’t so bad.) In the game between Nijat Abasov and Vidit Gujrathi, Vidit came close to being the first player to defeat Abasov with the Black pieces, but when he played 41…g4 rather than 41…Rh7 the bottom seed was able to escape. Had Vidit won - and he could have - he’d have been the fourth player with 4/7. Unfortunately for him, but happily for Abasov, he didn’t, and remains on 50% while Abasov is now alone in last place (Firouzja has deserted him) with a -3 score.

Even without Vidit, there could have been a five-way tie for first with 4/7 had Hikaru Nakamura managed to defeat Nepomniachtchi. He didn’t quite manage it, but Nepo had to sweat. As in round 5 in the Pragg-Nepo game, Nepo and his Petroff were too much of a stationary target. The Petroff is a first-class opening, but if you give world-class players months to prepare for it there are going to be some nasty surprises coming your way. In both cases, against Pragg and against Nakamura, it was clear that Nepo had prepared for those surprises, but the problem is that there are so many potential surprises and not enough time in the day to rehearse one’s prep for every single one of them, that at some point the “surprisee” is going to be on his own before the “surpriser” is, regardless of what’s in the surprisee’s computer files.

That’s what happened here, and it was Nakamura who had the somewhat better chances and - like Pragg - a huge lead on the clock, albeit in an absolutely berzerk position where Nepo had sacrificed the exchange and a pawn for serious counterplay against White’s king. Unfortunately for Nakamura, his 25th and 26th moves were inaccurate, and he had overlooked Nepo’s brilliant 26…Bxg3 until after he played 26.a4. Fortunately for the American, with precise play - which he showed - he was able to maintain equality, and in the end Nepo forced a perpetual at the end of the first time control, maintaining a narrow lead over the field.

I haven’t had time to analyze all the games yet, but I intend to update the game file before round 8. (UPDATE: I have analyzed then, and the following link has the analyses.) For now, here are the games, with notes to the Firouzja-Gukesh game. As already noted above Friday is a rest day, and then the players resume action on Saturday with a colors-reversed reprise of round 1 (when all four games were drawn):

• Nakamura (3.5) - Caruana (4)

• Nepomniachtchi (4.5) - Abasov (2)

• Praggnanandhaa (4) - Firouzja (2.5)

• Vidit (3.5) - Gukesh (4)