Round 12 of the 2022 Candidates
The narrative changes again (but not the meta-narrative about changing narratives).
Here’s what a random blogger wrote yesterday:
As for Ding, the truth, obviously, was that he needed a little time to get acclimated, and now that he has he’ll finish in second place - at worst.
This is the full and sober truth, the entire explanation, and the final word on what has happened and why—at least until something happens in the next three rounds to upend these tidy explanations. But fear not: once that happens, the commentariat will confabulate a new “full and sober truth”, and if we wait until the tournament is over the new story will undoubtedly stand the test of time…
I think I’ll wait until after round 14 of the Candidates to offer the “full and sober truth” - not that I have any partial and drunken truths to offer in the meantime. Just the facts: Ding Liren’s three-game winning streak came to a halt (see this dramatization of today’s game) when Teimour Radjabov - with Black - massacred him with a direct attack in just 26 moves. Was Ding tired? Careless after all his success? Who knows. Whatever the real explanation, it was a harsh encounter with reality.
And yet, it’s not so bad. Hikaru Nakamura was able to catch up to him after his marathon 14-move, six-minute game with Ian Nepomniachtchi. To take clear first and guarantee himself a world championship match against somebody Nepo just needs to score in the next two rounds, or have Ding and Nakamura fail to win both of their remaining games.
As for fourth place, well, there’s a tie, half a point behind Ding and Nakamura. Radjabov is half of the tie, and Caruana, whose whole second half of the tournament is a repeated version of the dramatization linked above, is the other half. He played a steady draw against Richard Rapport, in which first one and then the other player had a slight advantage, but neither player missed out on any major opportunities.
Finally, Alireza Firouzja was on his way off the cliff against Jan-Krzysztof Duda, but was rescued - twice - and saved a draw. (Today’s games, with my comments, are here.)
We now have the final rest day coming up, and the last two rounds will be on Sunday and Monday. (If a “miracle” happens and there’s a tie for first, there will be a playoff on Tuesday.) Here are the pairings for the last two rounds:
Round 13:
Nepomniachtchi (8.5) - Rapport (5)
Nakamura (6.5) - Duda (5)
Firouzja (5) - Ding (6.5)
Radjabov (6) - Caruana (6)
Round 14:
Rapport - Radjabov
Caruana - Firouzja
Ding - Nakamura
Duda - Nepomniachtchi
The race for first is over, but the race for second is very much open, and will likely come down to tiebreaks. Whether that will matter is up to Magnus Carlsen, and his desire to face Nepomniachtchi in another World Championship match. Time will tell.
The take of another (former) random blogger: Unpredictable as the whole thing is, it actually follows familiar scripts from former modern candidates. One of the leaders at halftime always cruised to tournament victory, never scoring more than +1 in the second half. A co-leader always collapsed in the second half, while someone with 50% or less at halftime was surging in the second half to get within striking distance at some stage. And the latest twist now for Ding Liren might be his second attempt to copy a player with partly Asian roots.
The data:
2013 Carlsen 5/7 + 3.5/7, Aronian 5/7+ 3/7 (but out of the race after round 12), Kramnik 3.5/7 + 5/7 [dramatic final round with Carlsen and Kramnik both losing and tiebreaks then favoring Carlsen]
2014 Anand 4.5/7 + 4/7, Aronian 4.5/7 + 2/7, Karjakin 2.5/7 + 5/7 (first place might have been within reach if he had beaten Anand in round 13, and he did have winning chances)
2016 Karjakin 4.5/7 + 4/7, Aronian 4.5/7 + 2.5/7, Caruana 3.5/7 + 4/7 (but tied with Karjakin before the last round, then losing against Karjakin - because it was a must-win game as tiebreaks favored Karjakin)
2018 Caruana 5/7 + 4/7, Mamedyarov 4.5/7 + 3.5/7 (not collapsing but still falling further behind), Karjakin 3/7 + 5/7 (tied with Caruana after beating him in round 12)
2020 becoming 2020/2021 Nepo 4.5/7 + 4/7 (though the loss in the last round was irrelevant as he had already secured first place), Vachier-Lagrave 4.5/7 + 3.5/7 (but definitely out of the race after round 11). Half-surging: Giri - from 50% at halftime to +3 after 12 rounds (clear second half a point behind Nepo) but losing his last two games. Surging: Ding Liren with 2.5/7 + 4.5/7 (only a footnote at the time, but affecting his Elo which eventually became relevant for the ongoing candidates event).
The collapsing player was almost always Levon Aronian - did he pass this propensity to his new countryman? Surging players were Kramnik (retired) and Karjakin (this time disqualified).
In 2018, Ding Liren (one win in round 12 and 13 draws) couldn't quite copy Giri's memorable result from 2016 - now he can still follow up on Giri's result from 2020/2021. The surging player could now be Radjabov: Will he beat Caruana after beating Nakamura and Ding Liren? And if so, will he still fall short of second place?
Names involved now were unpredictable. For starters, Caruana cruising and Nepo collapsing would have been more consistent with the reputation and track record of both players - Nepo seems fully aware of this, thus "safety first" for him in the second half. At halftime, people may have had Ding Liren on their list. Firouzja may have been on some/many lists - but the candidates is something else than beating sub-2700 players to qualify for the candidates and temporarily cross 2800. Who would have thought of Radjabov???