Sinquefield Cup, Round 8

Five draws means Firouzja wins the GCT

Going into the previous round, the ratio of wins to draws was 1:4. There were two decisive games in round 7, so to reestablish the “proper” balance it was necessary that all of today’s games finish peacefully. The players succeeded at this task admirably, with only Ian Nepomniachtchi trying to fight against this “law” of nature. He plowed on to move 80 before giving in to the inevitable in his game with Alireza Firouzja. With the draw Firouzja guaranteed at least a first-place tie and a playoff with Fabiano Caruana, if Firouzja loses in the last round and Caruana wins. The tournament is still up for grabs - barely - but it is now impossible for Caruana (or anyone else) to surpass Firouzja in the overall Grand Chess Tour standings, and so he is already the de facto Tour champion. Congrats!

To the games. Firouzja was fine with Black in a Scotch Four Knights, but his 21st and especially 22nd moves were inaccurate, and Nepo had some chances. Paradoxically, his decision to retain his extra pawn with 27.Bxd5 spoiled his winning chances; it was better to return the pawn with 27.Qe1 and hope that his better minor piece and superior pawn structure would pay dividends down the road. In the game Firouzja soon regained the pawn anyway, and the rook ending that resulted after 34 moves was clearly headed for a draw. Nepo tried his best to make something out of nothing, but “nothing” won and the draw happened all the same.

Caruana started (and ended) the day in clear second, a full point behind Firouzja. He obtained an advantage with Black against Praggnanandhaa R., but not playing 20…a5 allowed much of the edge to slip. He could have continued with 23…g5 instead of heading for a repetition, but the risk-reward ratio mitigated against it. The position was very sharp, and even if he somehow managed to win he’d still be half a point behind Firouzja. And if he lost, he’d immediately fall into a six-way tie for second. To my mind, he made the right decision.

A much less plausible decision to allow a repetition occurred in the game between Ding Liren and Nodirbek Abdusattorov. Ding was clearly better *and* in a risk-free position. Repeating there looks like he has made a decision to put this tournament behind him, looking forward to the Olympiad and then the World Championship. While his play overall seems better than it did earlier in the year, he still looks psychologically wobbly.

Ding’s challenger, Gukesh D., emulated Ding by also drawing in just 23 moves. (Pragg vs. Caruana went on exhausting 28 moves.) Both Gukesh and Giri could have chosen more combative options, but went for a repetition. (Your busy annotator thanks them.)

Wesley So and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave played a longer game, though there too the outlines of a draw were visible as early as move 18. MVL went for - I don’t know what to call it; maybe a Double Queen’s Gambit? (1.Nf3 d5 2.d4 Nf6 3.c4 c5) - and was already at least equal after nine moves. A mild inaccuracy on move 13 resulted in equality, and soon afterward an ending with all four rooks and opposite-colored bishops. So managed to win a pawn, but MVL’s active pieces always offered sufficient compensation. So gave it the old college try, but after 49 moves the players called it a day.

(Today’s games, with my annotations, are here.)

One round remains, and these are the pairings:

Caruana (4.5) - Giri (3)

Firouzja (5.5) - Praggnanandhaa (4)

Abdusattorov (4) - Nepomniachtchi (3.5)

Vachier-Lagrave (4) - Ding (3.5)

Gukesh (4) - So (4)

According to the laws of nature, there can only be one decisive game, but which shall it be? My understanding is that if MVL doesn’t win he probably won’t qualify for next year’s Grand Chess Tour, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him push for victory. Giri has been in bad form, so Caruana may put in a little extra effort, both to keep one of the five players just behind him from catching up and to catch Firouzja in first in the unlikely event that he (Firouzja) stumbles with White in the last round. We’ll see.

One last thing: For those of you watching the event live, the broadcast will start two hours early, so that there’s time for a playoff afterward in case Firouzja and Caruana end up tied for first.