Tata Steel Masters, Rounds 11 & 12

Gukesh and Pragg tied for first entering the last round.

On paper, Fabiano Caruana was the favorite coming into the Tata Steel Masters, but it has been all about the prodigies in this event. Caruana has an even score, while Arjun Erigaisi - admittedly, one of the prodigies in addition to being a fellow 2800 with Caruana entering the event - has fared even worse, languishing near the cellar with a significant minus score.

The leaders throughout have been the World Champion, Gukesh Dommaraju, and his fellow Indian Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, with Uzbek superstar Nodirbek Abdusattorov nipping at their heels. Those three have dominated the proceedings, and entering the last round are the only ones with a shot at first.

Let’s recap where we were at the end of round 10: Gukesh led with 7.5 points, half a point ahead of Abdusattorov and a point ahead of Pragg, who was in turn half a point ahead of Fedoseev.

In round 11 Gukesh got nothing against Wei Yi, which gave Abdusattorov the chance to catch him if he could defeat Vincent Keymer. He was winning for a while, but 38…Qe7?? allowed the young German to reach a drawn ending a pawn down but with rooks and opposite-colored bishops. Pragg, however, made the most of his opportunity, defeating Caruana with Black in a sharp position with the players castled on opposite flanks. Caruana was better much of the way, and was still objectively okay until his 32.Qe3?, missing 32…Nxb3! Pragg won several moves later after another error by the American, and joined Abdusattorov in a tie for second, half a point behind Gukesh. As for Fedoseev, his hopes of battling for first or even a spot on the podium took a hit when he lost a drawish ending - with White - against bottom seed Leon Mendonca. There were two other decisive games in this bloody round: Anish Giri defeated his countryman Max Warmerdam, while Pentala Harikrishna was the third player to win with the black pieces in the round thanks to his victory over Alexey Sarana. (The game’s other round was a perfunctory draw between Jorden Van Foreest and Erigaisi.)

Round 12 saw Pragg win again - his third in a row, and his second hat-trick of the tournament (he also won in rounds 2-4). He obtained a clear advantage against Sarana out of the opening, but a few imprecise moves let his opponent off the hook. Still, the burden of maintaining equality remained on Sarana, and when he played 21…Nb5?? rather than 21…Ka8 Pragg obtained a winning advantage with 22.Nxa6+!, finishing the job with a nice queen sac to force mate seven moves later.

Had Gukesh converted a winning advantage against Van Foreest he’d have maintained his half-point lead, but his surprising 42…Rb1??, played after considerable thought, not only threw away the win to be had with 42…Rxh3 43.gxh3 Qxd4 but gave Van Foreest the chance for a massive upset. Fortunately for the champ, Van Foreest blinked with 47.Rxe3, eliminating Black’s dangerous passer but also his winning chances, and the game ended in a perpetual several moves later.

That was unfortunate for Gukesh - who also suffered a setback in round 12 of his World Championship match with Ding Liren - but the real disaster on the day was Abdusattorov’s loss to Erigaisi of all people. Erigaisi was winless and -4 entering the round, but did his compatriots a “solid” by beating the snot out of Abdusattorov. Erigaisi did endanger the win somewhat with a very poor 32nd move, but he promptly bounced back to reclaim a winning plus which he converted in style. Abdusattorov is now a point behind entering the last round and most hope that both Gukesh and Pragg lose while he brings home the full point. Unlikely, but not impossible.

As for Fedoseev, he bounced back with a win against Warmerdam, who missed a tactical problem in a game that seemed headed for a draw. He’s just half a point behind Abdusattorov, and so retains chances for a third-place finish.

The remaining games were drawn, with only Carlsen - against Mendonca! - having real prospects for a loss.

Here are the games from the last two rounds, with my comments, and here are the final round pairings:

Gukesh (8.5) - Erigaisi (4.5)

Giri (6.5) - Van Foreest (5)

Fedoseev (7) - Wei Yi (6.5)

Caruana (6) - Warmerdam (3.5)

Sarana (5) - Mendonca (4.5)

Keymer (5) - Praggnanandhaa (8.5)

Abdusattorov (7.5) - Harikrishna (6)

By the way, the Challengers tournament is even more exciting, with three players tied for first (Suleymanli, L’Ami, and Nguyen) and a fourth (Bok) just half a point behind; remember that the winner of that event qualifies for next year’s Masters tournament (i.e. the one Gukesh and Pragg are leading).