The Indian contingent is very strong, and four of the final eight players in the World Cup are from this burgeoning chess super-power. The fourth Indian qualifier for the quarterfinals was Vidit Gujrathi, who advanced at the expense of two-time World Championship runner-up Ian Nepomniachtchi, going 2-0 against him in the 10’+10” games after two draws in the 25’+10” tiebreaker. Vidit played extremely well, as you can see here (with my analysis), and is a deserving quarter-finalist. As for Nepo, sadly, he’ll have to qualify for the Candidates by some other means, like losing a match a few months ago to Ding Liren.
Time now for the quarter-finals. Note that if Magnus Carlsen wins his match in this round and decides not to play in the Candidates even if he wins a subsequent match, then all three of the other winners in the quarter-final round will qualify for the Candidates. Here are the pairings, with the first-named player starting the match with the white pieces:
Gukesh - Carlsen
Vidit - Abasov
Dominguez - Caruana
Praggnanandhaa - Erigaisi
A little good news/bad news for the U.S. and India: they’re each guaranteed a semi-finalist, but it will come at the expense of one of their countrymen however it goes. India looks very likely to have two semi-finalists, as Nijat Abasov is an underdog against Vidit. The pity for India is that their best player is stuck facing Carlsen, which is even more terrible given that Carlsen shouldn’t be in the event if he’s not intending to play in the Candidates. (Yeah, yeah, a 1% chance. Riiiight. Maybe the organizers should have given Hans Niemann a wildcard spot and told Carlsen that if he was going to play without promising in writing to play in the Candidates, he would be paired with Niemann in his first round.)
Anyway, it should be exciting. I’m happy to see that Caruana has been playing so well, but part of me is rooting for Dominguez. He has been near that top tier for a long time but without ever qualifying for the Candidates, so it would be nice to see him finally break through and have his chance.
Abasov was also - to various degrees - underdog against Fressinet, Giri, Svidler and Salem (at least in terms of reputation and peak former strength of his opponents). Such a run may well come to an end (e.g. Berkes eliminated Gelfand, Vitiugov and Ponomariov before losing against Praggnanandhaa), but I wouldn't bet "the house" on Vidit (nothing personal, I met him personally in Wijk aan Zee and he is a really nice guy).
Vidit played overall better than Nepomniachtchi and thus deserved to advance, but "extremely well" seems a bit exaggerated given how he had squandered his entire advantage in the first decisive game. The second one doesn't count as much as it was must-win for Nepo which may explain some of the choices from both players (Vidit may have hesitated between "draw is enough" and "let's play according to the position, thus for a win".). Vidit had been somewhat struggling in his first two matches against Mastrovasilis and Bluebaum, needing long tiebreaks - then his win against Bacrot was quick (decided in classical) and about as convincing as it can get.
P.S.: For less convincing and far from "extremely good" play, check the women tiebreaks today. Three players are eliminated, three advance to already the semifinal with (as Ju Wenjun is eliminated) a 75% chance to qualify for the(ir) candidates event. It could have easily been (up to) three different names.