I continue to think that Carlsen's behaviour is strong evidence that something is amiss, though it's quite possible that (for one of many possible reasons) Carlsen does not have evidence that he feels he can make public. This is mainly just because I attach high credence to the counterfactual that if something was not seriously amiss, Carlsen would not behave as he has behaved. For some evidence that there's no smoke without fire, but still a long way from public evidence, see Aronian's recent cagey interview in which he says he understands Magnus' frustration: https://youtu.be/8JmZJC4Ltqs
Carlsen's behavior, since and including his refusal to defend his title, has become an embarrassment. Furthermore, his actions are having a negative effect not only on chess in general and Niemann in particular (whom IM Regan has pretty conclusively vindicated in St Louis), but potentially other players as well, for whom his non-game could alter their standing in the tournament. While Carlsen is, for now, world champion, and will, at least for the foreseeable future, retain the top spot in the ranking, nevertheless, if he cannot control his petty and self-important behavior, perhaps he should retire from chess.
This time, Carlsen may not get into trouble with organizers, because he is the organizer.
I agree with everything you write, but one aspect - mentioned elsewhere - is still missing:
"what is going to happen if Niemann and Carlsen both qualify for the knockout stage,, as seems likely ... ?"
Niemann may well end up depending on the free points against Carlsen (3 points for a win in the event) to qualify for the knockout stage, at the expense of someone else. With one point for a draw he would now be in shared 8th place (with Keymer and Aronian, only one qualifies), with a loss he would be in shared 10th place with Giri. Even if his edge over 9th place turns out to be bigger in the end, it will affect the tournament situation towards the end of the qualifying phase - amount of risk some players have to take in the last few rounds.
Even if Niemann manages to qualify by a margin that exceeds the three-point gift, it might still be the case that his rank, or Carlsen's, if he finishes behind Erigaisi, will create different pairings than those that would have resulted from a draw or a Carlsen win in the game with Niemann. And it's at least possible that it would result in someone gaining or losing money by avoiding Carlsen. (For example, Giri is currently in eighth. If Carlsen winds up in second, I like Giri's chances against Erigaisi much more than I would if he plays Carlsen.)
I continue to think that Carlsen's behaviour is strong evidence that something is amiss, though it's quite possible that (for one of many possible reasons) Carlsen does not have evidence that he feels he can make public. This is mainly just because I attach high credence to the counterfactual that if something was not seriously amiss, Carlsen would not behave as he has behaved. For some evidence that there's no smoke without fire, but still a long way from public evidence, see Aronian's recent cagey interview in which he says he understands Magnus' frustration: https://youtu.be/8JmZJC4Ltqs
Carlsen's behavior, since and including his refusal to defend his title, has become an embarrassment. Furthermore, his actions are having a negative effect not only on chess in general and Niemann in particular (whom IM Regan has pretty conclusively vindicated in St Louis), but potentially other players as well, for whom his non-game could alter their standing in the tournament. While Carlsen is, for now, world champion, and will, at least for the foreseeable future, retain the top spot in the ranking, nevertheless, if he cannot control his petty and self-important behavior, perhaps he should retire from chess.
This time, Carlsen may not get into trouble with organizers, because he is the organizer.
I agree with everything you write, but one aspect - mentioned elsewhere - is still missing:
"what is going to happen if Niemann and Carlsen both qualify for the knockout stage,, as seems likely ... ?"
Niemann may well end up depending on the free points against Carlsen (3 points for a win in the event) to qualify for the knockout stage, at the expense of someone else. With one point for a draw he would now be in shared 8th place (with Keymer and Aronian, only one qualifies), with a loss he would be in shared 10th place with Giri. Even if his edge over 9th place turns out to be bigger in the end, it will affect the tournament situation towards the end of the qualifying phase - amount of risk some players have to take in the last few rounds.
You are correct, and it gets even worse.
Even if Niemann manages to qualify by a margin that exceeds the three-point gift, it might still be the case that his rank, or Carlsen's, if he finishes behind Erigaisi, will create different pairings than those that would have resulted from a draw or a Carlsen win in the game with Niemann. And it's at least possible that it would result in someone gaining or losing money by avoiding Carlsen. (For example, Giri is currently in eighth. If Carlsen winds up in second, I like Giri's chances against Erigaisi much more than I would if he plays Carlsen.)