I agree with almost all of your predictions, with the exception of Nepomniachtchi. He is fearsomely strong, the "defending champion" of the Candidates tournament, has had great results in other events both before and after his loss to Magnus, and I think deserves to be placed amongst the favourites. I think the idea that the World Championship loss has broken his confidence so badly that he's unlikely to win is a bit speculative.
My only other "hot take" is that I believe Magnus will play to defend his title, regardless of the challenger. Possibly if he wins he will choose to go out on top afterwards, but I find it hard to believe he will back down once a challenger is decided.
I'm also very glad to see your posts again, and I will happily follow you to Substack!
I agree with almost all of your predictions, with the exception of Nepomniachtchi. He is fearsomely strong, the "defending champion" of the Candidates tournament, has had great results in other events both before and after his loss to Magnus, and I think deserves to be placed amongst the favourites. I think the idea that the World Championship loss has broken his confidence so badly that he's unlikely to win is a bit speculative.
My only other "hot take" is that I believe Magnus will play to defend his title, regardless of the challenger. Possibly if he wins he will choose to go out on top afterwards, but I find it hard to believe he will back down once a challenger is decided.
I'm also very glad to see your posts again, and I will happily follow you to Substack!