In categorizing upsets, I wouldn't attach as much significance to whether a player has (just a bit) more than 2700 or not, and would consider the past and possible future in addition to current ratings. You do the latter for (implicitly) Ivanchuk, Esipenko (who was a past and may be again a future 2700+), Bacrot and Ponomariov (still doing well in KO events).
So may main quibble would be about considering Vitiugov a significant favorite against Berkes. Berkes had also been (barely) 2700+ back in 2011/2013, and had 2680 as recently as December 2021 - then maybe struggling post-pandemic to drop to 2615. It may also matter that he played much more recently than Vitiugov. Berkes had eliminated good ol' Gelfand before - two consecutive wins against higher-rated players are no longer random or reminiscent of a lottery?
A bigger upset may have been Vahap Sanal eliminating former borderline 2700 player Korobov, having eliminated Abdusattorov. Politics and how each player is affected may also matter for both Ukrainians (Korobov) and Russians (Vitiugov, also Esipenko who went from about 2720 down to about 2680 since April 2022).
In categorizing upsets, I wouldn't attach as much significance to whether a player has (just a bit) more than 2700 or not, and would consider the past and possible future in addition to current ratings. You do the latter for (implicitly) Ivanchuk, Esipenko (who was a past and may be again a future 2700+), Bacrot and Ponomariov (still doing well in KO events).
So may main quibble would be about considering Vitiugov a significant favorite against Berkes. Berkes had also been (barely) 2700+ back in 2011/2013, and had 2680 as recently as December 2021 - then maybe struggling post-pandemic to drop to 2615. It may also matter that he played much more recently than Vitiugov. Berkes had eliminated good ol' Gelfand before - two consecutive wins against higher-rated players are no longer random or reminiscent of a lottery?
A bigger upset may have been Vahap Sanal eliminating former borderline 2700 player Korobov, having eliminated Abdusattorov. Politics and how each player is affected may also matter for both Ukrainians (Korobov) and Russians (Vitiugov, also Esipenko who went from about 2720 down to about 2680 since April 2022).