Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa has been living on the edge, but once again it’s his opponent who ends up falling over the cliff. Fabiano Caruana had every opportunity to win the first of today’s tiebreak games, but repeatedly let Pragg off the hook, and the game finished in a draw. The second game was more closely contested, and then came game 3, the first of the 10’+10” games. Caruana equalized with Black and even had a small edge for a time, but his inferior pawn structure was a long-term issue. He had rightly sacrificed one pawn, but an error cost him a second pawn. Neither his compensation nor the opposite-colored bishops were enough to make a draw, and despite the short time control Pragg’s technique was very good. He won, and was close at times to winning the second game as well. Caruana did well to not only avoid the loss but to keep it complicated for a while, but Pragg held on to make a draw and thereby win the match. (The games are here, with annotations to games 1 and 3.)
So, instead of a World Championship rematch it’s Magnus Carlsen vs. Praggnanandhaa in the final, with Caruana taking on Nijat Abasov to see who gets third place.
In the concurrent Women’s World Cup, which ended today, Alexandra Goryachkina defeated the surprise of the tournament, Nurgyul Salimova, to take first. Salimova was second, and Salimova’s semi-final opponent, Anna Muzychuk, took third, defeating Tan Zhongyi in their match. The event was set up for the top three finishers to qualify for the Women’s Candidates Tournament, but there too irregularities got in the way. Goryachkina had already qualified as the runner-up in the Women’s Grand Prix, but rather than having all three of the remaining semi-finalists qualify, only Salimova and Muzychuk went through. For Tan, however, no such luck. The spot that would have gone to her goes to the highest-rated female player on the January 2024 rating list who has played the requisite number of games (and is interested, hasn’t already qualified by some other means, etc.). Seriously folks, it’s a huge error to allow people who are not playing in these events to qualify for the Candidates to participate. (It would be funny, and a case of just desserts, however, if Goryachkina finishes as the runner-up in the Candidates because of the player who takes the spot that should have gone to Tan.)
The weird thing are also different regulations for women than in the open competition - no "reserve spots" from dedicated qualifying events, all replacements by rating. Here it's a matter of the Grand Prix Series being held, and finishing before the World Cup. In the open competition, only the FIDE Circuit is "winner only" - second place doesn't qualify for the candidates even if the winner double-qualifies or refuses to play the candidates.
For the women rating spot, the situation is also somewhat weird: Hou Yifan is even less likely than Carlsen to be interested in the candidates. So far, she only played six games in the Chinese League. If she suddenly changes her mind, events in China could be arranged for her as before for Ding Liren - this would work for women while men have to play four events (international ones or national championship) from the FIDE Circuit to validate a rating spot. Next are Ju Wenjun (already qualified for a world championship match), then Goryachkina (already double-qualified for the candidates).
Then currently Humpy Koneru, who so far played exactly 30 rated games: 11 from one Grand Prix event, 9 from another one (two players dropped out directly before and during the event and weren't replaced), 4 from the Cairns Cup before dropping out herself, 6 from the World Cup before being eliminated.
Of course she could still play this year, her margin of error for losing rating and still qualifying for the candidates is fairly comfortable: next are Lei Tingjie and Lagno (already qualified for the candidates), only then Kosteniuk currently 27 points behind Koneru.
If Koneru qualifies via the Women Grand Swiss, the rating spot will be (at the moment) mainly between Kosteniuk, Mariya Muzychuk (eliminated by her sister in the World Cup, also a bit weird but unavoidable for one of them) and Tan Zhongyi - within 6 points of each other today or on 1st September when live ratings become official and are rounded up or down.