The weird thing are also different regulations for women than in the open competition - no "reserve spots" from dedicated qualifying events, all replacements by rating. Here it's a matter of the Grand Prix Series being held, and finishing before the World Cup. In the open competition, only the FIDE Circuit is "winner only" - second place doesn't qualify for the candidates even if the winner double-qualifies or refuses to play the candidates.
For the women rating spot, the situation is also somewhat weird: Hou Yifan is even less likely than Carlsen to be interested in the candidates. So far, she only played six games in the Chinese League. If she suddenly changes her mind, events in China could be arranged for her as before for Ding Liren - this would work for women while men have to play four events (international ones or national championship) from the FIDE Circuit to validate a rating spot. Next are Ju Wenjun (already qualified for a world championship match), then Goryachkina (already double-qualified for the candidates).
Then currently Humpy Koneru, who so far played exactly 30 rated games: 11 from one Grand Prix event, 9 from another one (two players dropped out directly before and during the event and weren't replaced), 4 from the Cairns Cup before dropping out herself, 6 from the World Cup before being eliminated.
Of course she could still play this year, her margin of error for losing rating and still qualifying for the candidates is fairly comfortable: next are Lei Tingjie and Lagno (already qualified for the candidates), only then Kosteniuk currently 27 points behind Koneru.
If Koneru qualifies via the Women Grand Swiss, the rating spot will be (at the moment) mainly between Kosteniuk, Mariya Muzychuk (eliminated by her sister in the World Cup, also a bit weird but unavoidable for one of them) and Tan Zhongyi - within 6 points of each other today or on 1st September when live ratings become official and are rounded up or down.
The weird thing are also different regulations for women than in the open competition - no "reserve spots" from dedicated qualifying events, all replacements by rating. Here it's a matter of the Grand Prix Series being held, and finishing before the World Cup. In the open competition, only the FIDE Circuit is "winner only" - second place doesn't qualify for the candidates even if the winner double-qualifies or refuses to play the candidates.
For the women rating spot, the situation is also somewhat weird: Hou Yifan is even less likely than Carlsen to be interested in the candidates. So far, she only played six games in the Chinese League. If she suddenly changes her mind, events in China could be arranged for her as before for Ding Liren - this would work for women while men have to play four events (international ones or national championship) from the FIDE Circuit to validate a rating spot. Next are Ju Wenjun (already qualified for a world championship match), then Goryachkina (already double-qualified for the candidates).
Then currently Humpy Koneru, who so far played exactly 30 rated games: 11 from one Grand Prix event, 9 from another one (two players dropped out directly before and during the event and weren't replaced), 4 from the Cairns Cup before dropping out herself, 6 from the World Cup before being eliminated.
Of course she could still play this year, her margin of error for losing rating and still qualifying for the candidates is fairly comfortable: next are Lei Tingjie and Lagno (already qualified for the candidates), only then Kosteniuk currently 27 points behind Koneru.
If Koneru qualifies via the Women Grand Swiss, the rating spot will be (at the moment) mainly between Kosteniuk, Mariya Muzychuk (eliminated by her sister in the World Cup, also a bit weird but unavoidable for one of them) and Tan Zhongyi - within 6 points of each other today or on 1st September when live ratings become official and are rounded up or down.